Anaheim Ducks 2020-21 NHL Season Preview
Coming off their second straight season without the playoffs, the Anaheim Ducks are hoping to see more from their young forwards as they'll try to compete in a tough division.
With the NHL more or less officially returning sometime between mid-January and early February, it’s time for me to start my annual team previews. We start with the Anaheim Ducks.
The Anaheim Ducks used to be a model of consistency. Though they didn’t win a Stanley Cup in the 2010s, they will end the decade with the eight-highest point percentage during the regular season. The Ducks made the playoffs seven times, including six straight times from 2012-13 to 2017-18, with two Western Conference Final appearances sprinkled in.
This year’s Ducks aren’t those Ducks. They’re quite different. The Ducks are stuck in an awkward spot between contending and rebuilding. It’s sort of a transitional period, as Ryan Getzlaf has passed his torch on Rickard Rakell and John Gibson.
Offseason Review
The Ducks are known for not doing much during the offseason. However, 2020 has been weird as hell, so of course the Ducks decided to be active! Derek Grant’s fascinating career continues, as he signed a three-year deal with the Ducks. This will be the fourth straight season he has played at least one game for them. The last two seasons have involved trades.
The Ducks big signing was defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk. Fresh off a Stanley Cup with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Shattenkirk earned a three-year deal worth $3.9 million per year. Shattenkirk’s warts are well known. He isn’t the best defensively, but he remains one of the NHL’s most productive defensemen and he can still run a power play from the point.
Shattenkirk is a rare “big” UFA signing for the Ducks. To clarify, “big” means at least two years in length with an AAV of at least $3 million. The last UFA signing for the Ducks that met those qualifications? Clayton Stoner back in 2014, and even then, he didn’t technically change teams. If you don’t want to count Stoner, you’d have to go all the way back to 2012 with Bryan Allen.
The Ducks still have to sign a backup goalie, but they’re expected to re-sign Ryan Miller. There are still some backup goalies on the market. But no matter what they do, Anthony Stolarz will probably be a part of the solution, whether it’s as a third goalie or the backup role.
Forwards
Last year, the Ducks were the third-worst scoring team in the NHL, scoring just 2.56 goals per game. The Ducks will be expecting more from their young players this season. Last season, they proved they weren’t quite ready yet. But now those players are one year older and more experienced.
For just the second season since the start of the 2012-13 season, someone not named Ryan Getzlaf led the team in points. Adam Henrique led the team with 43 points and Rickard Rakell was tied with Getzlaf with 42 points. Furthermore, Getzlaf’s 18:44 time on ice per game was the lowest in well over a decade. Getzlaf’s days as a workhorse are over.
Unfortunately for the Ducks, they don’t have an immediate in-house replacement. Adam Henrique is best suited in a second-line or third-line center role. Rickard Rakell has experience as a center, though his best work has been done as a wing and he hasn’t played center regularly since the 2017-18 season.
Last season, the Ducks were expecting Troy Terry, Sam Steel, and Max Jones to help carry the load. Instead, they combined for 49 points in 171 games. The Ducks will need much more out of them and Maxime Comtois, who had 11 points in 29 games, if they want to make the playoffs.
Expected Forwards
Ryan Getzlaf
Jakob Silfverberg
Ryan Rakell
Adam Henrique
Troy Terry
Derek Grant
Sam Steel
David Backes
Danton Heinen
Sonny Milano
Max Jones
Isac Lundestrom
Maxime Comtois
Nicolas Deslauriers
Defensemen
A few years ago, the Anaheim Ducks had a very deep blueline featuring Sami Vatanen, Brandon Montour, Shea Theodore, Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, and Josh Manson. Now only the last three remain.
Hampus Lindholm is still a top-pairing caliber defenseman, but he struggles to drive offense, though maybe the Ducks lackluster offense plays a role in this. He faces top competition and comes out in the green in most underlying stats.
Cam Fowler was trending in the wrong direction for several years, but had a surprisingly effective season in 2019-20. He had the highest relative xGF% at 5v5 among all Ducks defensemen (min. 200 minutes) and played a shade under 30% of his 5v5 minutes against “elite” competition, per Puck IQ.
Josh Manson was Lindholm’s primary defensive partner last year. They formed the Ducks shutdown pairing and had a +1.27% relative xGF% in over 400 5v5 minutes together.
It will be interesting to see where they play Shattenkirk. He’ll probably play next to Fowler on the second pairing. However, maybe having someone like Lindholm on his left would allow him to be a top pairing defenseman.
Their third pairing will likely consist of Jacob Larsson and Christian Djoos, though Brendan Guhle could push for time there as well.
Expected Defensemen
Hampus Lindholm
Josh Manson
Cam Fowler
Kevin Shattenkirk
Jacob Larsson
Christian Djoos
Brendan Guhle
Goaltending
Ultimately, goaltending will probably be the greatest strength for the Anaheim Ducks. That’s largely because of John Gibson. If Gibson is healthy, he’s an elite goaltender capable of carrying the Ducks for extended periods of time. While he had an uncharacteristically bad season last year, he was still roughly a league average goalie. Given his track record, I’d bet on Gibson bouncing back.
Stolarz hasn’t played regular NHL games for a while, so it’s hard to tell how he’ll do in the NHL. Assuming the Ducks re-sign Ryan Miller, Gibson and Miller are a pretty solid one-two combo.
Burning Questions
Can John Gibson steal enough games in a shortened season to give the Ducks a chance at making the postseason? Gibson, when healthy, is an elite goalie. An elite goalie is arguably the most valuable position in hockey. If you don’t believe me, just ask the Winnipeg Jets or Arizona Coyotes.
Will their young players step up? Unless the Ducks count on John Gibson having a Hart Trophy caliber season, they’ll need more from their younger players.
Is Ryan Getzlaf’s time in Anaheim coming to an end? He’ll be an unrestricted free agent after the 2020-21 season. Getzlaf turns 36 in May, but he’s still a quality player. He has a no-movement clause so he isn’t going anywhere unless he wants to. But can the Ducks talk him into waiving it?
What Division Will They Be In?
The Ducks will be leaving one mediocre division and entering a tougher one. Last season, the Pacific Division was objectively bad. Every division except for the Pacific Division had at least one team with 90 points. Had the Flyers gotten one more point, every division except the Pacific would have had at least two teams with 90 points. The Pacific hosted three of the five worst teams in the NHL last season, and the Ducks were one of them.
According to Pierre LeBrun, the Ducks will be in the same division as the Arizona Coyotes, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings, San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues, and Vegas Golden Knights. All of those teams except for the Ducks, Sharks, and Kings made the playoffs.
The Stars are the reigning Western Conference Champions and the Golden Knights made it to the Western Conference Final. Additionally, the Blues had the best record in the Western Conference last season and the Avalanche had the second-best record. Assuming the league goes with 16 playoffs teams, there will likely be four playoff teams from each division. That leaves the Ducks on the outside looking in.
Prediction
Unless the NHL decides to have another expanded postseason (which isn’t out of the question), a lot will have to go right for the Ducks to make the playoffs. They’d have to finish in the top four in a division that features both of the Western Conference finalists and the two best regular season teams from the Western Conference last season.
Unless otherwise noted, stats are courtesy of Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick.